The government plans to revise down its economic growth target for the current fiscal year as the ongoing countrywide blockade and the associated violence have continued to hit the economy hard.

“We will have to revise it because of the current situation. The revision exercise has already begun,” Finance Minister AMA Muhith told reporters at his secretariat office yesterday.

The government had earlier targeted 7.3 percent economic growth for the current fiscal year. The World Bank forecast that the economy would grow by 6.2 percent this fiscal year, while the Asian Development Bank said the growth would be 6.4 percent. The central bank last week also said the GDP growth would be in the region of 6.5-6.8 percent.

Muhith is due to update his colleagues in parliament on the macroeconomic situation in the second quarter of the fiscal year in the ongoing parliamentary session and he would bring in the issue of the revised GDP target then.

The minister also spoke on how the nonstop blockade that entered its 28th day is getting in the way of the government's budget implementation.  “Everything has been affected -- people are not being able to run their normal economic activities. How can the economy advance in this situation?” Muhith said.

Nonstop blockades mixed with local and nationwide hartals have badly hit farm incomes, disrupted inter-district road and rail transport, weakened buyer confidence on the exporters' ability to deliver on time and halted the rebuilding of investor and consumer confidence.

Bangladesh is counting about Tk 2,277.86 crore in economic losses a day, due to the blockade and strikes ongoing since January 6. However, it would stand at Tk 2,500 crore if the daily loss is calculated taking into account the 25 percent of the total industrial production, according to the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI).

The garment sector suffered losses worth Tk 695 crore a day, followed by transport and communication sector at Tk 300 crore, agriculture sector Tk 288 crore, tourism sector Tk 210 crore, poultry industry Tk 18.28 crore as a result of the violence, said the chamber.

Some sectors have also come up with their own analysis.

Garment exporters, whose contribution accounts for 81 percent of the country's total exports and 15 percent of the GDP, said the first 12 days of the blockade cost the industry Tk 450 crore. Realtors, who account for 7 percent of the GDP, are incurring losses of Tk 36 crore every day, said the Real Estate and Housing Association of Bangladesh.

The services sector, which makes up half of the GDP, has been particularly affected, as people have been avoiding unnecessary outings fearing petrol bomb attacks, which have so far killed at least 35 and severely burnt many others.

Foreign and local tourists have cancelled their tour plans in groves, hitting the tourism sector.

The industrial sector, which accounts for 29 percent of the GDP, has been affected as raw materials, goods and products could not move smoothly in the last one month.

Farmers could not sell their produce. Furthermore, the supply of agriculture inputs such as diesel and fertiliser has been affected ahead of the boro season, when the country produces more than half of its rice.

The poultry industry, which is part of the broader agriculture sector, incurred losses of around Tk 256 crore in the first two weeks of the blockade, as farmers were unable to sell around crores of eggs, hundreds of tonnes of meat and day-old chicks, according to the Bangladesh Poultry Industries Coordination Committee. Renewed political tensions and violence may negatively affect foreign investor confidence, raising risks to growth over the long-term, Fitch Ratings said.